"A Pre-Lima Scorecard for Evaluating which Countries are Doing Their Fair Share in Pledged Carbon Cuts"
The authors explore a novel approach to evaluating the ambition and fairness of countries' voluntary pledges to reduce emissions. This approach could facilitate negotiations at the upcoming UN climate conference in Lima—and the broader process leading to a new 2015 international climate agreement.
November 18, 2014
Op-Ed, Foreign Policy
By Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs; Faculty Chair, International Security Program
"China's increasingly assertive policies toward its immediate neighborhood shows that Beijing is hardly indifferent to geopolitics, and Russia's assertive defense of what it sees as vital interests in its 'near abroad' (e.g., Ukraine) suggests that somebody in Moscow didn't get the memo about the benign effects of globalization. And regional powers like India, Turkey, and Japan are taking traditional geopolitical concerns more seriously these days. Bottom line: If you thought great-power rivalry was a thing of the past, think again."
Fall/Winter 2014 - 15
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
The international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change to be determined in Paris in December 2015 is “the greatest opportunity the world has had in 20 years to make meaningful progress on this exceptionally challenging issue,” Harvard Project on Climate Agreements (HPCA) Director Robert Stavins said in a Boston Globe op-ed in September. Stavins was in New York City during the week of the United Nations Climate Summit, which included numerous side events and a march that attracted several hundred thousand Americans calling for serious climate actions.
November 14, 2014
Op-Ed, Bloomberg View
By Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
The latest China-Russia gas deal, declared on the arrival of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing this week, got far more attention than it deserved. Eager to add fuel to the narrative of an emerging strategic relationship between Beijing and Moscow, commentators pronounced the deal as a game-changer, a symbol of a new partnership between long-estranged countries. Yet, a look beyond the words of Russian gas executives (always a good idea) suggests that there is much more hype than substance here. The deal seems to be little more than an effort to ensure that Putin did not leave China empty-handed, particularly in the wake of a big U.S.-China declaration on climate.
November 11, 2014
By Leonardo Maugeri, Associate, Environment and Natural Resources Program/Geopolitics of Energy Project
Italian energy economist Leonardo Maugeri has been getting attention lately for his 2012 prediction that growing oil supply capacity “could lead to a glut of overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices.” In October, he declared victory. In an interview, the associate at Harvard’s Belfer Center told the Globe how he made his forecast and how long low oil prices could last.
November 12, 2014
Op-Ed, Moscow Times
By Henrik Larsen, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"Economic fragility and domestic mismanagement have plagued Ukraine since it gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite boasting a skilled, educated work force and vital natural resources such as metals, minerals and agriculture, the country has struggled to sustain economic growth. Meanwhile, corruption and institutional inefficiency remain major problems hampering the development of the state, making it impossible for governments over the years to implement much-needed reforms.'
November 11, 2014
Op-Ed, The National Interest
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School
"This is the moment for Obama to help Putin understand that he now stands at a fateful fork in the road. If he moves swiftly to end the conflict with Ukraine by offering terms acceptable to Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, he can restore economic relations with the West, gain access to advanced technologies required to increase future production of Russian oil and gas and modernize other sectors of the Russian economy, and thus ensure Russia's chance for a stable, prosperous future. The alternative is to persist on a path that presents growing risks of what he fears most."
November 11, 2014
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"Netanyahu, who deserves considerable credit for having successfully placed the Iranian issue at the center of the international agenda, unfortunately went too far in the last year, turned himself in the eyes of the world from the champion of the cause to an annoyance, and undermined the strategic coordination with the United States. The idea of conducting a public campaign against the agreement, while mobilizing the Congress against the president, borders on the irresponsible."
November 7, 2014
Belfer Center Senior Fellow Robert Zoellick, chairman of Goldman Sachs' International Advisors, was the lead U.S. Negotiator in the Two Plus Four process for Germany’s unification, serving under Secretary of State James Baker. The German government awarded Zoellick the Knight Commanders Cross for his work on unification. In this Q&A with Belfer Center Director of Communications Josh Burek, Zoellick shares lessons from the fall of the wall 25 years ago and the crucial diplomacy that followed.
November 6, 2014
Op-Ed, Harvard Crimson
By Frauke Hoss, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program/Cyber Project
"The main explanation for this situation...is the difficulty of creating a unified approach for the large variety and number of financial institutions in the U.S. But if the European Union has managed to do so across countries and languages, the U.S. should be able to so, too. It certainly does not lack the technical expertise."