MIDDLE EAST
August 21, 2012
"Cooling the Fever of War"
Op-Ed, Washington Post
By David Ignatius, Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project
"As Israel and Iran entered this summer of confrontation over Tehran’s nuclear program, the Iranians were also conducting talks with the United States and other leading nations to seek a diplomatic alternative to war," writes David Ignatius, a columnist with the Washington Post and 2012-2013 Fischer Family Fellow at the Belfer Center, "since then, the rumors of an impending Israeli military strike have grown almost daily, but whatever happened to the negotiations?"
The answer is that the “P5+1” talks with Iran have been in recess during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, but contact is expected to resume soon between the top negotiators. Talking with Iranian and U.S. experts, I don’t hear any hint of a breakthrough that would ease the war fever, although some useful new ideas have been floated.
AP Photo
August 20, 2012
"Why West Should Curb Hostility To Non-Aligned Summit in Tehran"
Op-Ed, Al-Monitor
By Abbas Maleki, Associate, International Security Program and Kaveh L. Afrasiabi
"...[T]he various implications of the NAM summit and Iran's NAM presidency — for regional stability, conflict mediation and a greater Iranian role as a responsible international actor, among others — need to be taken into consideration in the West, as part and parcel of a more prudent and nuanced Western approach toward Iran, instead of one that is dependent on coercive diplomacy."
August 17, 2012
"How America Can Stop Israel's Slow March To War"
Op-Ed, New York Times
By Dennis Ross, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"Obama administration officials have made it clear that they believe there is still time and space for diplomatic efforts to succeed in stopping from achieving a capability," writes Dennis Ross, a member of the Belfer Center's International Council.
AP Photo
August 9, 2012
"Obama's Foreign Policy Doctrine"
Op-Ed, Gulf News
By Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor
"...Obama did not back away from rhetorical expressions of transformational goals regarding such issues as climate change or nuclear weapons, in practice his pragmatism was reminiscent of more incremental presidential leaders like Dwight Eisenhower or George H. W. Bush."
AP Photo
August 4, 2012
"Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War — Part 2"
Op-Ed, Fair Observer
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"Like the 1980 Iraqi invasion, an attack will be viewed in Iran as part of a pattern of Western subversion and aggression that links together British and Russian economic exploitation, occupation during World War II, the coup that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq in 1953, and years of support for the Shah's repressive regime. For those in Iran who question the standard narrative of concerted and constant Western aggression, an attack on Iranian territory will dispel any doubt and engender the next generations of Iranians who subscribe to that view."
AP Photo
August 4, 2012
"A Security Guarantee Now"
Op-Ed
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"...Israel should explore the possibility of obtaining a U.S. security guarantee that is limited to the Iranian nuclear program (and possibly other existential threats), on the condition that it does not restrict our freedom of maneuver in other areas—or limit our strategic capabilities. These capabilities are the ultimate guarantor of our security and cannot be compromised, indeed, they may be sufficient in themselves to deter Iran. The United States, in any event, which is greatly concerned over the ramifications of an Israeli strike and is doing everything in its power to prevent one, may demonstrate greater openness to the idea than it did in the past...."
AP Photo
July 28, 2012
"Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War — Part 1"
Op-Ed, Fair Observer
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"While the regime may increase its strength in the wake of an attack, it may also be able to capitalize on an attack to eliminate its internal enemies. That is precisely what happened following the 1980 Iraqi invasion. Ayatollah Khomeini and his allies used the war to strengthen their control over the state along the war-making state-making nexus, following the pattern of revolutionary elites in other countries. Their main rival for power within the Islamic Republic was the secular leaning constituency led by President Abolhassan Banisadr, who had tried to gain the support of the regular armed forces and to steer the war effort in his role as commander in chief. To minimize Banisadr's power, Khomeini sent his own representatives to oversee the armed forces, which eroded their support for the president, and built up a competing powerbase in the IRGC."
July 16, 2012
"The Middle Eastern Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) – Nuclear Verification"
Conference Paper
By Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
This publication is based on a presentation at the “Verification in the 21st Century – Technological, Political and Institutional Challenges and Opportunities”, 17 – 20 June 2012, Wilton Park, UK.
Vahid Salemi - AP Images
July 6, 2012
"Will Iran Crack?"
Op-Ed, Los Angeles Times
By Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
The latest Iran sanctions came into full effect this week, adding to a byzantine array of unilateral and multilateral measures that prohibit Iranian oil imports, other trade and financial transactions, and freeze Iranian assets by countries concerned that Tehran's nuclear program is intended for military purposes, not civilian ones.
AP Photo
June 21, 2012
"The Warfare State: Considering a Military Attack in a Fourth Muslim Country"
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
By Charles G. Cogan, Associate, International Security Program
"Whether or not the U.S. joined in an Israeli bombing of Iran, it would be blamed for it, and it would be seen throughout the world as America's fourth military intervention in a Muslim country."
