IRAN
Winter 2008/09
"Correspondence: Costs and Difficulties of Blocking the Strait of Hormuz"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 3, volume 33
By William D. O'Neil and Caitlin Talmadge
William O'Neil replies to Caitlin Talmadge's Summer 2008 International Security article, "Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz."
AP Photo
January 2009
"Shifting Trends in Suicide Attacks"
Journal Article, CTC Sentinel, issue 1, volume 2
By Assaf Moghadam, Associate, International Security Program/Initiative on Religion in International Affairs
"By far, the most dramatic trend related to the location of suicide attacks is the gradual shift of incidents from Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Between July 2007 and June 2008, the last one-year period for which data on suicide attacks are available, 58.2% of suicide attacks struck Iraq, and 36.6% struck Afghanistan and Pakistan. This compares to a much wider gap between suicide attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan in the preceding year (July 2006 to June 2007), when 69.3% of attacks took place in Iraq, and 25.1% in Afghanistan and Pakistan...."
AP Photo
January 29, 2009
"Iran's Islamic Revolution and Its Future"
Journal Article, Viewpoints, The Iranian Revolution at 30 Special Edition
By Abbas Maleki, Former Senior Research Associate, International Security Program
"Regime sustainability despite different internal crises and foreign threats underlines the fact that Iran enjoys a relatively rational decision-making process. The central slogan of the Iranian Revolution was "Independence, Freedom, and Islamic Republic." Today, Iran is an independent state, as it does not belong to an Eastern or a Western bloc. Although the country has not realized its ambition of economic independence, the revolution has provided economic welfare. Rural development has improved people's lives by providing villages with water, electricity, and infrastructure. The essence of independence also
referred to the specific relations between the Iranian monarchy and the United States. The US-sponsored 1953 coup against the popular Muhammad Mosaddeq government made Iran an American client state, leading to Iranian dependence in all aspects."
AP Photo
January 29, 2009
"The Geopolitical Factor in Iran's Foreign Policy"
Journal Article, Viewpoints, The Iranian Revolution at 30 Special Edition
By Kayhan Barzegar, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"Revolutions either expand to export their ideologies or preserve themselves from the outside world. The 1979 Islamic revolution of Iran is no exception. A careful reading of Iran's actions in the region shows how and why Iran has shifted its policies to meet the latter aim. Since the revolution, Iran's leaders have faced the challenge of balancing their ideological (idealism) and geopolitical (pragmatism) approaches to foreign policy. Gradually, the Iranian leadership has come to focus on the geopolitical factor in the conduct of foreign policy; today, ideology one factor among many other sources of Iran's power, and serves the aim of preserving Iran's national security and interests...."
AP Photo
January 23, 2009
"Good News in Washington Nuance"
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
"Barack Obama's inaugural address, Hillary Clinton's confirmation testimony, George Mitchell's appointment, and Obama's remarks at the State Department are as good a start as we in the Arab world could expect from the new administration in Washington."
AP Photo
Winter 2008
"Iran's Foreign Policy in Post-invasion Iraq"
Journal Article, Middle East Policy, issue 4, volume XV
By Kayhan Barzegar, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"Many at the grassroots level of Iranian society want good, stable relations between Iran and Iraq because of their cultural-religious priorities, which include having the freedom to visit the sacred cities of Karbala and Najaf. This strong interest exists on the Iraqi side, too. In summer 2006, for instance, some 3,000 visas were issued daily by Iranian consulates in Baghdad, Basra and Najaf for Iraqi pilgrims to visit Mashhad and Qom and other sacred places inside Iran. Since the opening of borders following the removal of the Baathist regime, the Iranian government has been under pressure to preserve an adequate amount of cooperation with Iraqi authorities to secure the routes of pilgrims to the Shia areas and to provide public services. Simultaneously, the families of those who lost their lives in the Iran-Iraq War would like the government to pursue a policy towards Iraq that ensures that the victims were not killed in vain. It is worth noting that the painful memory of the war pervades Iranian society, thus affecting policy options. Trade with Iraq is also a priority. Iranian merchants and businessmen consider certain parts of Iraq, especially predominantly Shia areas such as Basra, to be ideal markets for Iranian exports. Some estimates consider the range of economic activities about $5 billion annually."
AP Photo
December 30, 2008
"A Marginalized Region"
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
A year-end analysis of the global status of the Arab world -- its problems and trends.
AP Photo
December 29, 2008
"Bush's 'Orphans' Haunt the World"
Op-Ed, Toronto Star
By Thomas M. Nichols, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"Presidents are often remembered for the things they did, but like many administrations before his own, a significant part of George W. Bush's legacy might well lie with the things he failed to do. The Bush administration essentially "orphaned" several foreign policy issues after 2000 (relations with Mexico and Canada, and the environment, among others) but two are particularly important: tensions with Russia and the future of nuclear arms control."
AP Photo
December 27, 2008
"Needing Coercive Diplomacy to Deal with Iran"
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
By Joshua Gleis, Former Associate, International Security Program, 2008-2009; Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2008
"The United States must re-examine the manner in which it has dealt with Iran's nuclear program. For too long, U.S. administrations have let their counterparts take the lead in Iranian negotiations. In the meantime, many of those involved in talks with the Iranians have themselves greatly benefited from economic cooperation with the Shiite Islamist regime. Russian assistance, for instance, will allow the Iranians to make their first nuclear plant operational by January 2009. The Germans continue to be the largest trading partner with the Iranians, a country it is supposedly trying to pressure. And NATO ally Turkey recently announced a $12 billion deal to invest in Iran's South Pars offshore gas field. Adept negotiators, the Iranians have used this time to secretly advance their nuclear weapons program while still turning a profit...."
AP Photo
Fall/Winter 2008
"Iran and the Shiite Crescent: Myths and Realities"
Journal Article, Brown Journal of World Affairs, issue 1, volume XV
By Kayhan Barzegar, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"In 2004, King Abdullah of Jordan warned about the emergence of an ideological Shiite crescent from Beirut to the Persian Gulf. Ever since then, the debate on Iran's intentions to create a Shiite crescent has been a significant topic of debate for the panels and conferences held on the region's issues. Three presumptions center on Iran's role and intentions. A Shiite crescent is seen by the Arab Sunni elites as an attempt by Iran firstly to engage the masses in the region; secondly, to build an ideological belt of sympathetic Shiite governments and political factions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Persian Gulf region; and, thirdly, to expand its regional role and power. These explanations are inadequate and unrealistic; none of them are compatible with Iran's real aims and strategies."
