CAUCASUS

2003

The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory

Book

By Monica Duffy Toft, Associate Professor of Public Policy

This book addresses the crucial role of territory in explaining ethnic violence.  The theory of indivisible territory is explored in an attempt to explain why some conflicts turn violent and others do not.  The case studies consist of Russia in relation to the Chechens and Tartars and Georgia in relation to the Abkhaz and Ajars, roughly from 1990 to 1994.

November 26, 2002

"Russia's Struggle with Chechnya: Implications for the War on International Terrorism"

Event Report

By Jessica Stern, Lecturer in Public Policy; Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program, Monica Duffy Toft, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Miriam Lanskoy

A discussion about recent events in the Russian-Chechen conflict and possible connections between Chechen fighters and international Islamist organizations.

July 2002

Borders and Brethren: Iran and the Challenge of Azerbaijani Identity

Book

By Brenda Shaffer, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1999-2000; Former Research Director, Caspian Studies Project, 2004-2007

The Azerbaijani people have been divided between Iran and the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan for more than 150 years, yet they have retained their ethnic identity. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of an independent Azerbaijan have only served to reinforce their collective identity.

January 6, 2002

Kazakhstan's Antinuclear Role

Op-Ed, Boston Globe

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

Opened in September, this pipeline has a capacity of 1 million barrels a day. Furthermore, Kashagan field has been acclaimed as the most significant new discovery of reserves in the past quarter-century.

When President Bush met with Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the White House in December, they discussed Kazakhstan's new role in world energy and the campaign against terrorism. The meeting resulted in a joint statement that affirmed their strategic partnership and a US intention to help Kazakhstan integrate more fully into the global economy.

While this meeting addressed important goals, it should also have underlined the significant role Kazakhstan has played in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. Nazarbayev now has an opportunity to extend that legacy by leading the negotiations for the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty.

Winter 2001/02

"The United States and Terroism in Southwest Asia: September 11 and Beyond"

Journal Article, International Security, issue 3, volume 26

By Samina Ahmed, Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, 1998-2002

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, have changed the international environment in ways that few would have imagined when the new millennium began. International Security rarely commissions articles, but the extraordinary events of September 11 deserve attention in these pages.

Summer 2001

"How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict"

Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 26

By Ivan Arreguin-Toft, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2002-2009

Ivan Arreguín-Toft of Harvard University offers a theory of asymmetric conflict to explain “how a weak actor’s strategy can make a strong actor’s power irrevlevant.” According to Arreguín-Toft, the interaction of actor strategies is the best predictor of asymmetric conflict outcomes. After providing quantitative and qualitative tests of his theory, he considers some of the implications of his thesis for both theory building and policymaking.

April 2001

"The Future of Gas Infrastructures in Eurasia"

Journal Article, Energy Policy, issue 5, volume 29

By Jimin Zhao, Former Research Fellow, Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group/Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, 2000-2003

The IIASA-WEC study global energy perspectives emphasized trends toward cleaner, more flexible, and more convenient final energy forms, delivered chiefly by energy grids, and noted potential energy infrastructure deficiencies in Eurasia.

December 21, 1999

The 'Democratic Presumption' is Taking Hold in Russia

Op-Ed, Boston Globe

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

Sunday's stunning victory for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his supporters in the new Unity Party surprised most observers. Just three months ago when Russian President Boris Yeltsin made Putin prime minister, knowledgeable Muscovites dismissed the Kremlin entourage as politically spent. It was judged too corrupt and too incompetent to matter.

March 1999

Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America

Book

By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project (on leave), Harvard & Stanford Universities and Dr. William J. Perry, Former Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project

"The most important book by any ex-Clinton official."

-Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times (April 16, 1999)

February 1998

"No Peace, No War in the Caucasus: Secessionist Conflicts in Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh"

Occasional Paper

By Edward Walker

This monograph offers a current analysis of the three most important secessionist conflicts in the Caucasus: Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In Chechnya, after the outbreak of war in 1994, the ferocious resistance of the Chechens, the collapse of the Russian military, and a popular backlash in Moscow against the war resulted in a tentative peace treaty in August 1996. Since then, neither Russia nor Chechnya has been able to find a creative middle ground that can reconcile the Chechen desire for independence with Russian fears of a "domino effect" and the rupture of the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. In Nagorno-Karabakh, a cease-fire has held since May 1994. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have gradually been moved toward a compromise solution by the OSCE, but the Karabakh Armenians are holding out for the ultimate ruling of the political status of the territory. In February 1998, just after Dr. Walker completed his paper, domestic disagreement in Armenia over prospect of a compromise solution for Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in the resignation of President Levon Ter-Petrossian. In Georgia, civil war and military collapse forced Tbilisi to end its assault on Abkhazia in 1993, but neither Moscow nor a United Nations mission has since been able to bring the two sides together. In their state of "no peace, no war," the three conflicts continue to pose the most serious obstacle to the long-term stability and development of the Caucasus region.