NORTH KOREA -- NUCLEAR PROGRAM
August 19, 2008
Former U.S. Diplomat R. Nicholas Burns Appointed to Harvard Kennedy School Faculty
Press Release
By Doug Gavel and R. Nicholas Burns, Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics
R. Nicholas Burns, formerly the highest-ranking career diplomat at the U.S. Department of State, has been appointed Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics. He will serve on the Board of Directors at Belfer Center.
July 2008
"Denuclearization of the DPRK—A Role for the United Nations?"
Paper, volume 3
By Xiaohui (Anne) Wu, Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"The denuclearization of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to be a source of considerable international concern. Yet, no coherent international framework has emerged to deal with this challenge in parallel with the regional mechanism of the six-party talks. With the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference set for 2010, appropriately addressing the DPRK nuclear issue is being identified as essential to maintaining the strength of the NPT. Can the United Nations (UN) afford to take a back seat in attempts at resolution?This article examines the potential of, and prospects for, an active UN role in facilitating Pyongyang's denuclearization process. Anne Wu's paper examines the potential of, and prospects for, an active UN role in facilitating Pyongyang's denuclearization process."
AP Images
July 15, 2008
North Korea's Nuclear Moves
Event Report
By John Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Dr. John Park discusses the decades-long conflict between Pyongyang and Washington over North Korea's nuclear program; he specifically discusses the response following June 26, when, in return for submitting its nuclear declaration, Pyongyang received confirmation that President Bush would notify Congress of his intention to remove North Korea from the State Sponsors of Terrorism List and lift Trading With the Enemy Act restrictions.
Dean Calma/IAEA
July 12, 2008
IAEA Safeguards: Dealing Preventively with Non-Compliance
Report
Pierre Goldschmidt, former Deputy Director-General for Safeguards at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), outlines a new approach to strengthening the IAEA's hand in cases when states violate their safeguards agreements. Goldschmidt argues that the UN Security Council should pass a generic resolution laying out steps the Security Council would take to deal with any state found to be in violation of its safeguards obligations. Any state which violated its safeguards pact would be required to accept a broader inspection regime going well beyond the Additional Protocol until the IAEA was able to draw the conclusion that all of its nuclear facilities and materials were under safeguards. Goldschmidt offers a draft text for the resolution and for the "Model Temporary Complementary Protocol" that defines the broader inspection regime, along with an article-by-article analysis.
Summer 2008
"Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.
January 3, 2008
"Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea"
Working Paper
By Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder and John Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements."
September 26, 2007
Securing the Bomb 2007
Book
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project
Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2007 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.
Autumn 2007
The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City
Journal Article, Washington Quarterly, issue 4, volume 30
By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project (on leave), Harvard & Stanford Universities, Dr. William J. Perry, Former Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project and Dr. Michael M. May
Failure to develop a comprehensive contingency plan, such as the one proposed here, and inform the American public, where appropriate, about its particulars will only serve to amplify the devastating impact of any nuclear attack on a U.S. city
July 2007
"North Korea's Oct. 9 Nuclear Test: Successful or Failed?"
Conference Proceedings
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
In this paper, Zhang examined if the test was successful. Based on a technical analysis, Zhang concluded that: whether North Korea’s Oct. 9 nuclear test was successful or failed would be dependent on North Korea’s designed yield. If North Korea planned a yield of 4 kt (as told to China), it would be not a failed test. It could show that North Korea already had confidence to explode a nuclear device and pursued a much more compact warhead for its missiles. Thus, it is urgent to negotiate for dismantling North Korean nuclear and long-range missile programs.
July 2007
"Off-Site Air Sampling Analysis And North Korean Nuclear Test"
Conference Proceedings
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
In this paper, Zhang explores what information could have been obtained from offsite air sampling analysis. Specifically, he examines how to use the activity ratios of xenon isotopes to identify the North Korean nuclear test and whether the off-site air sampling analysis would be able to distinguish a test from a plutonium-bomb and a HEU bomb.
