PAKISTAN, AQ KHAN
May 2009
Pakistan Can Defy the Odds: How to Rescue a Failing State
Report
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"Is Pakistan collapsing? How far are the Taliban from Islamabad? Can al-Qaeda grab the country's nuclear weapons? These are the types of questions raised every day by the American media, academia and policy circles. And these are critical issues, given the nature of the evolving crisis in Pakistan. The approximately two dozen suicide bombings in 2009 so far, 66 in 2008, and 61 in 2007, all of which have targeted armed forces personnel, police, politicians, and ordinary people not only in the country's turbulent northwest but also in its major urban centers, indicate the seriousness of the threat. A major ammunition factory area located close to some very sensitive nuclear installations in Wah (Punjab) was targeted by two suicide bombers in August 2008, an act that sent shudders across the country's security establishment...."
istock Photo
March 23, 2009
"How to Keep the Bomb From Terrorists"
Op-Ed, Newsweek
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
The only thing that can keep nuclear bombs out of the hands of terrorists is a brand-new science of nuclear forensics.
February 2009
"Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance"
Journal Article, American Political Science Review, issue 1, volume 103
By Matthew Kroenig, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom
Why do states provide sensitive nuclear assistance to nonnuclear weapon states, contributing to the international spread of nuclear weapons? Using a new dataset on sensitive nuclear transfers, this paper analyzes the determinants of sensitive nuclear assistance. Dr. Kroenig first describes a simple logic of the differential effects of nuclear proliferation, which is used to generate hypotheses about the conditions under which states provide sensitive nuclear assistance. He then shows that the strategic characteristics of the potential nuclear suppliers are the most important determinants of sensitive nuclear assistance. Explanations that emphasize the importance of economic motivations do not find support in the data. This paper presents a new approach to the study of the spread of nuclear weapons, focusing on the supply side of nuclear proliferation.
istock photo
January 22, 2009
World At Risk: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism
Testimony
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
Belfer Center Director Graham Allison testified before the House Armed Services Committee about the findings of "World At Risk," the report produced by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism.
November 18, 2008
Securing the Bomb 2008
Book
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project
Associate Professor of Public Policy and Project on Managing the Atom Co-Principal Investigator Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2008 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.
November 18, 2008
Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: An Agenda for the Next President
Report
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project and Andrew Newman, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Matthew Bunn and Andrew Newman outline specific steps that President-elect Obama should take to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism to a fraction of its current level during his first term in office. This paper summarizes the recommendations in Securing the Bomb 2008 and provides additional detail on organizing the U.S. government to prevent nuclear terrorism and on steps that should be taken during the transition and the opening weeks of the new administration.
November 2008
Partnership for Progress
Report
By Xenia Dormandy, Former Senior Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The Belfer Center's Xenia Dormandy and Hassan Abbas participated in a working group on the state of Pakistan convened by the Center for American Progress. The resulting report proposes strategies for enhanced security, democratization, and economic growth.
Fall 2008
"Nuclear Stability in South Asia"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 33
An examination of the onset, evolution, and termination of the 1999 and 2001–02 crises between India and Pakistan suggests that nuclear deterrence is robust in South Asia. Even though the 1999 crisis erupted into a war, its scope and dimensions were carefully circumscribed. Despite its conventional capabilities, India chose not to cross the Line of Control (the de facto international border in the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir), and it avoided horizontal escalation of the conflict.
Fall 2008
"Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 33
Nuclear weapons have had two destabilizing effects on the South Asian security environment. First, nuclear weapons’ ability to shield Pakistan against all-out Indian retaliation, and to attract international attention to Pakistan’s dispute with India, encouraged aggressive Pakistani behavior. Second, these Indo-Pakistani crises led India to adopt a more aggressive conventional military posture toward Pakistan. This development could exacerbate regional security-dilemma dynamics and increase the likelihood of Indo-Pakistani conflict in years to come. Thus nuclear weapons not only destabilized South Asia in the first decade after the nuclear tests; they may damage the regional security environment well into the future.
AP Photo
September 2008
The Next Chapter
Report
By Xenia Dormandy, Former Senior Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The Belfer Center's Xenia Dormandy participated in the Pakistan Policy Working Group, which was convened in January 2008 to assess the state of U.S.-Pakistan relations and to offer ideas to the next U.S. President and his Administration on managing this critical partnership.
