INDIA -- NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Fall 2008
"Nuclear Stability in South Asia"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 33
An examination of the onset, evolution, and termination of the 1999 and 2001–02 crises between India and Pakistan suggests that nuclear deterrence is robust in South Asia. Even though the 1999 crisis erupted into a war, its scope and dimensions were carefully circumscribed. Despite its conventional capabilities, India chose not to cross the Line of Control (the de facto international border in the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir), and it avoided horizontal escalation of the conflict.
Fall 2008
"Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 33
Nuclear weapons have had two destabilizing effects on the South Asian security environment. First, nuclear weapons’ ability to shield Pakistan against all-out Indian retaliation, and to attract international attention to Pakistan’s dispute with India, encouraged aggressive Pakistani behavior. Second, these Indo-Pakistani crises led India to adopt a more aggressive conventional military posture toward Pakistan. This development could exacerbate regional security-dilemma dynamics and increase the likelihood of Indo-Pakistani conflict in years to come. Thus nuclear weapons not only destabilized South Asia in the first decade after the nuclear tests; they may damage the regional security environment well into the future.
AP Photo
July 11, 2008
"Why U.S. Could Lose Out on India Nuclear Trade"
Media Feature
By Xenia Dormandy, Former Senior Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed by Brajesh Upadhyay for BBC News on July 11 regarding the implications of the U.S.-India nuclear deal for international trade.
AP Photo
July 10, 2008
"Indo-Israeli Relations: Key Security Implications"
Policy Brief
By Ronak D. Desai and Xenia Dormandy, Former Senior Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Following more than forty years of diplomatic estrangement, the last decade has witnessed India and Israel embark on a new multidimensional "strategic partnership." What are the implications of growing ties between these two countries for India and the United States?
Summer 2008
"Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.
AP Photo
April 7, 2008
"India's Key Foreign Policy Issues"
Policy Brief
By Xenia Dormandy, Former Senior Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
In recent years, India's military, diplomatic and economic energies have expanded far beyond Nehru's Non-Aligned position. But what does that mean for India, its region, and the United States?
AP Photo
Winter 2007/08
"A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army's New Limited War Doctrine"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 3, volume 32
India’s inability to coerce Pakistan into halting its support for insurgents in Kashmir, as well as its experience in past conflicts with Pakistan, led it to develop Cold Start—a new offensive military doctrine that will allow it to mobilize quickly and retaliate in a limited manner. Although India is far from realizing its goal, this break from a traditional defensive strategy deserves scrutiny. A history of misperception and mistrust between India and Pakistan, poor intelligence, and domestic insecurity suggests that limited war could quickly escalate to the nuclear threshold, posing a serious risk to the stability of the subcontinent and the rest of the world.
Winter 2007-2008
"Q&A: Xenia Dormandy"
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
The Project on India and the Subcontinent is a new initiative of the Belfer Center, directed by former Executive Director for Research Xenia Dormandy. Its mission is to build knowledge, leadership, and recommendations on key policy-critical issues related to the rise of India and South Asia. Dormandy answered the following questions about the new project.
AP Photo
October 20, 2007
"Nuclear Deal will be Revived"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, India Tribune
As director for South Asia at the US National Security Council, Xenia Dormandy played a key role coordinating the July 2005 visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Washington. The trip resulted in the historic civilian nuclear agreement which today, under attack from the United Progressive Alliance’s Left partners, appears to be floundering. In an interview, Ms Dormandy expressed confidence that the nuclear deal would go through. It’s only a matter of when, she said.
September 26, 2007
Securing the Bomb 2007
Book
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project
Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2007 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.
