US AND NUCLEAR ISSUES
Summer 2008
"Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.
Winter 2005-06
"Notable Quotes"
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
Notable quotes from opeds and testimonies.
2002
Iran’s Nuclear Policy and the IAEA – An Evaluation of Program 93+2
Book
By Chen Zak Kane, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
In this book, Ms. Zak asserts that the Islamic Republic of Iran provides a good test case for evaluating the implementation of Program 93+2. She examines whether this new verification system would permit the identification of Iranian nuclear weapons development and whether a regional agreement might ultimately prove to be a more effective option for the Middle East.
2002
Iran’s Nuclear Policy and the IAEA – An Evaluation of Program 93+2
Book
By Chen Zak Kane, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
In this book, Ms. Zak asserts that the Islamic Republic of Iran provides a good test case for evaluating the implementation of Program 93+2. She examines whether this new verification system would permit the identification of Iranian nuclear weapons development and whether a regional agreement might ultimately prove to be a more effective option for the Middle East.
May 7, 2005
"Nuclear Pact in Real Trouble"
Op-Ed, The Irish Times
By Thomas J. Wright, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2004-2007
Could the World Be on the Path to a New Nuclear Crisis?
Summer 2008
"Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.
December 2005
"Until the Sun Grows Cold: Persisting Nuclear Dangers in a Complacent World"
Book Chapter
By Steven E. Miller, Director, International Security Program; Editor-in-Chief, International Security; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom
Presented as a Plenary Lecture at the 55th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs "60 Years After Hiroshima and Nagasaki"
22-27 July 2005, Hiroshima, Japan.
May 7, 2005
"Nuclear Pact in Real Trouble"
Op-Ed, The Irish Times
By Thomas J. Wright, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2004-2007
Could the World Be on the Path to a New Nuclear Crisis?
November 2009
"Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation"
Working Paper
By Matthew Kroenig, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom
Matthew Kroenig examines the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics. He proposes a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. Kroenig argues that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state’s ability to project military power. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.
Fall 2009
"Enabling a Nuclear Revival—and Managing Its Risks"
Journal Article, Innovations, issue 4, volume 4
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project and Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom
Matthew Bunn and Martin B. Malin examine the conditions needed for nuclear energy to grow on a scale large enough for it to be a significant part of the world’s response to climate change. They consider the safety, security, nonproliferation, and waste management risks associated with such growth and recommend approaches to managing these risks. Bunn and Malin argue that although technological solutions may contribute to nuclear expansion in the coming decades, in the near term, creating the conditions for large-scale nuclear energy growth will require major international institutional innovation.
