CHINA AND NUCLEAR ISSUES
Summer 2008
"Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.
AP Photo
2008
"La Cina e le Bombe Asiatiche"
Journal Article, Aspenia, issue 41
By Xiaohui (Anne) Wu, Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
As a progressively responsible and cooperative partner of the global, nuclear non-proliferation regime, China faces challenges on multiple fronts that have brought judgment, reflection, and debate, domestically as well as internationally, on its non-proliferation policy. Since 1980s, China's historical reservations about, and skepticism and independence of, the global non-proliferation regime have consequently been gradually transitioning to active participation in and even integration with, as well as strong support of, the process.
April 2008
"Should and Can the FMCT Be Effectively Verified?"
Journal Article, INESAP Information Bulletin, issue 28
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Hui Zhang argues that an effective universal Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) would make an important contribution to nuclear disarmament, the nonproliferation regime, and the prevention of nuclear terrorism. However, such a FMCT must have a credible verification regime. Dr. Zhang suggests that it should be technically feasible to establish an effectively verifiable FMCT at a reasonable cost, while protecting national security secrets.
January 3, 2008
"Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea"
Working Paper
By Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder and John Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements."
September 26, 2007
Securing the Bomb 2007
Book
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom
Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2007 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.
July 2007
"Off-Site Air Sampling Analysis And North Korean Nuclear Test"
Conference Proceedings
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
In this paper, Zhang explores what information could have been obtained from offsite air sampling analysis. Specifically, he examines how to use the activity ratios of xenon isotopes to identify the North Korean nuclear test and whether the off-site air sampling analysis would be able to distinguish a test from a plutonium-bomb and a HEU bomb.
Summer 2007
"Revisiting North Korea's Nuclear Test"
Journal Article, China Security, issue 3, volume 3
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Hui Zhang re-examines the North Korean explosion on October 9, 2006. His research suggests that the test was likely not a failure if Pyongyang had planned for a yield of 4 kt, as it told Beijing prior to the event.
April 2007
U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course
Report
By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard & Stanford Universities, Dr. Carla A. Hills, Admiral Dennis C. Blair and Frank Sampson Jannuzi
The United States should approach China with an "Affirmative Agenda," rather than thwart its ambition to become a great power, concludes new Council on Foreign Relations report.
March 2007
The Minimum Means of Reprisal: China's Search for Security in the Nuclear Age
Book
By Jeffrey G. Lewis, Former Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom
Jeffery Lewis examines patterns in Chinese defense investments, strategic force deployments, and arms control behavior to assess China's nuclear strategy.
Winter 2007
America's Strategic Response to China's Military Modernization
Journal Article, Harvard Asia-Pacific Review, issue 1, volume 9
By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard & Stanford Universities and Jennifer C. Bulkeley, Research Fellow, International Security Program
Dr. Ashton B. Carter and Jennifer C. Bulkeley offer recommendations for America's strategic response to China's military modernization.
