ECONOMICS AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS
Summer 2012
Paul Volcker and Mike Murphy Talk Politics and Economy
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
By James F. Smith, Communications Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
It’s not the economy, stupid. It’s the public’s perceptions about the economy that will decide the 2012 presidential election....That was the bipartisan analysis shared by veteran Republican political consultant Mike Murphy and a Democratic expert on the economy – no less than Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve and former adviser to President Obama. Teh two sat down and assessed the campaign during a roundtable discussion at the Kennedy School moderated by Belfer Center Director Graham Allison.
Summer 2012
Fellows Enrich Belfer Center and Harvard Kennedy School with Vital Research, Dialogue
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
By Sharon Wilke, Associate Director of Communications
Several times each week, the Belfer Center library is filled with students, faculty, and fellows eager to listen, challenge, and exchange information and ideas triggered by the day’s presentation. Many of these talks are by one of the Center’s more than 70 research and senior fellows. This article features a few of the talented women and men who are current and former faculty, fellows, staff and associates of the Belfer Center whose work is making significant contributions in public and private sectors around the world.
Summer 2012
International Security: Vol. 36. No. 4.
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. The journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@Harvard.edu.
AP Photo
May 7, 2012
"François Hollande—No More 'Mr. Pudding'?"
Op-Ed, Christian Science Monitor
By Charles G. Cogan, Associate, International Security Program
"Hollande's immediate problem will not be with the US but with Germany — his first foreign destination as president. He has promised to renegotiate a European Union treaty mandating deficit and debt limits. He wants to inject more growth into the pact, but the likely result will be a separate add-on of measures (whose effectiveness remains to be seen), rather than a change in the pact itself (which German Chancellor Angela Merkel firmly opposes)."
AP Photo
May 2, 2012
"Merkel Can Achieve Fiscal Union in Europe"
Op-Ed, Financial Times
By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Pierpaolo Barbieri, Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program
"Europe's monetary union is neither the joint checking account of a dysfunctional family nor a latter-day gold standard. It was always meant to be a staging post on the road to a federal Europe. Today the biggest threat to its survival is no longer the economic consequences of austerity; it is the political consequences, in the form of populist, anti-European, usually xenophobic fringe parties. Almost everywhere but Germany, such parties are gaining support."
AP Photo
May 2, 2012
"Dealing with a Chinese Monroe Doctrine"
Op-Ed, New York Times
By Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs; Faculty Chair, International Security Program
"...[W]ar between China and America is far from inevitable. Both countries have nuclear weapons and both governments understand that a war would be catastrophic. If future leaders are prudent, the rivalry may be managed and peace preserved. But if inexperienced, reckless or over-confident leaders come to power on either side, the danger of war will rise. Unfortunately, recent history warns that the likelihood both countries will always have wise leaders is not high."
AP Photo
May-June 2012
"Rising Sun in the New West"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, American Interest, issue 5, volume 7
By Mayumi Fukushima, Richard N. Rosecrance, Adjunct Professor; Senior Fellow, International Security Program; Director, Project on U.S.-China Relations and Yuzuru Tsuyama
In the 20th century, Japan was in many ways the weathervane of international politics. It will likely remain that in the 21st century. How so? As Europe and the United States cope with their difficulties, and as problems in China, India, Russia and elsewhere emerge more clearly, Japan is very likely to join a renascent West.
April 30, 2012
"Austerity Has Brought Europe To The Brink Again"
Op-Ed, Reuters
By Lawrence Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor
"Once again European efforts to contain crisis have fallen short. It was perhaps reasonable to hope that the European Central Bank’s commitment to provide nearly a trillion dollars in cheap three-year funding to banks would, if not resolve the crisis, contain it for a significant interval. Unfortunately, this has proved little more than a palliative. Weak banks, especially in Spain, have bought more of the debt of their weak sovereigns, while foreigners have sold down their holdings. Markets, seeing banks holding the dubious debt of the sovereigns that stand behind them, grow ever nervous. Again, Europe and the global economy approach the brink," argues Larry Summers in a recent op-ed.
April 29, 2012
"The Economy and the Presidency"
Op-Ed, Project Syndicate
By Martin Feldstein, George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University
With the U.S. presidential election a mere six-months away, it's outcome will largely depend on how the economy performs between now and election day, and the public's perception of that performance, writes Martin Feldstein, the George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University and Belfer Center Board member. "The polls are very close, and voters have not yet locked in their decisions....but the state of the economy is usually the most important determinant of who wins national elections in the United States. And US economic conditions now favor Romney," he writes.
April 26, 2012
"Romney Must Release A Credible Budget"
Op-Ed, Financial Times
By Lawrence Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor
"Political arithmetic is invariably suspect and one should always examine carefully the claims of those seeking votes," writes Belfer Center International Council member Larry Summers, "However, just as one should look at audited and unaudited financials very differently when deciding whether to invest in a company, smart observers have learnt to distinguish between the claims of political candidates and their advisers on one hand, and proposals evaluated by non-political scorekeepers... on the other."
