ECONOMICS AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS
Fall 1998
"Correspondence: Evaluating Economic Sanctions"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 23
By David A. Baldwin and Robert Pape, Editorial Board Member, Quarterly Journal: International Security
David Baldwin of Columbia University takes issue with Robert Pape’s findings in his Fall 1997 article that economic sanctions “do not work.” Pape replies.
Summer 1998
"Why Economic Sanctions Still Do Not Work"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 23
By Robert Pape, Editorial Board Member, Quarterly Journal: International Security
The author responds with a vigorous defense of his original findings from “Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work,” a highly regarded and influential study that offered qualified optimism about the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool, which was published in the fall 1997 issue of International Security.
Spring 2011
"Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 4, volume 35
By Paul MacDonald, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2008 and Joseph M. Parent
There is broad scholarly consensus that the relative power of the United States is declining and that this decline will have negative consequences for international politics. This pessimism is justified by the belief that great powers have few options to deal with acute relative decline. Retrenchment is seen as a hazardous policy that demoralizes allies and encourages external predation. Faced with shrinking means, great powers are thought to have few options to stave off decline short of preventive war. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, however, retrenchment is not a relatively rare and ineffective policy instrument. A comparison of eighteen cases of acute relative decline since 1870 demonstrates that great powers frequently engage in retrenchment and that retrenchment is often effective. In addition, we find that prevailing explanations overstate the importance of democracies, bureaucracies, and interest groups in inhibiting retrenchment. In fact, the rate of decline can account for both the extent and form of retrenchment, even over short periods. These arguments have important implications for power transition theories and the rise of China.
AP Photo
October 12, 2011
"Mr. Lee Goes to Washington"
Policy Memo
By John S. Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"Amid setbacks and chronic challenges in almost every major region, Washington views South Korea as a linchpin on a global scale. From hosting the G20 summit in 2010 to preparing to host the next Nuclear Security Summit in 2012, South Korea has been establishing itself as a global partner in addressing common challenges, ranging from rebalancing the international economy to preventing the use of nuclear materials for terrorist attacks. For President Lee, the state visit is an important opportunity to demonstrate South Korea’s unique role as a bridge between the developed and developing countries."
AP Photo
September 28, 2010
"North Korea's Leadership Succession: The China Factor"
Policy Memo
By John S. Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
On September 28, North Korean state media announced that Kim Jong-il's third son, Kim Jong-eun, was promoted to the rank of four-star general just prior to the opening of the Workers' Party of Korea conference. Kim Jong-eun was later named vice chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission at the conference. These important developments follow the late August meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Changchun, near the Sino-DPRK border, which appears to have cleared the way for this Party conference. After the meeting, both countries' state media reported the leaders' support for the rising generation of the Party — a clear reference to Kim Jong-eun.
AP Photo
December 8, 2009
"America and China Diverge on a Shared Korean Goal"
Op-Ed, Financial Times
By John S. Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom and Drew Thompson
"...if China continues to prioritise friendly commercial relations with North Korea and Iran, it will threaten its own long-term security. A chronically proliferating North Korea would provoke Japan to reassess the need for a nuclear deterrent, while a nuclear-armed Iran could destabilise the Gulf and global energy markets. Crafting an approach that includes a sustained US-China engagement to clarify each side's intent, provides for China's energy security and maintains a focus on the threat of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran is more likely to achieve our shared non-proliferation goals."
January 3, 2008
"Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea"
Working Paper
By Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder and John S. Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements."
Autumn 2005
"Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks"
Journal Article, Washington Quarterly, issue 4, volume 28
By John S. Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Despite extensive diplomatic efforts to facilitate the six-party talks, domestic policy constraints, differing priorities, and conflicting historical analogies among each of the countries have brought vastly differing perspectives to the multilateral negotiating table.
April 12, 2013
"Indonesia's Narrow Road of Dynastic Politics"
Op-Ed, The Straits Times
By Derwin Pereira, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"Oligarchs in Indonesia today have such a stranglehold over the political process that the outcome of next year's presidential race will largely be in their hands. Outsiders eyeing the top post will not get far, even if they are popular, without the approval of one of the nation's powerful families."
February 18, 2013
"Perspectives on the Population White Paper"
Op-Ed, The Straits Times
By Derwin Pereira, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
THE thought of Singapore being inhabited by even a hypothetical 6.9 million people by 2030 has focused minds with a vengeance that is normally reserved for Toto or football match results. As in a lottery, there is a harrowing sense of winners and losers; as with football matches, visceral emotions have been brought into rough play, writes Derwin Pereira. But, he says, "some of this angst would be eased if Singaporeans were to think of demographic change as inevitable. They have only to look at what is occurring elsewhere to place in perspective the choices which they will have to make if they want their country to survive and prosper."
