ECONOMICS OF NATIONAL SECURITY
AP Photo
September 18, 2008
The Power of Oil Consumers
Op-Ed
By Henry A. Kissinger and Martin Feldstein, George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University
The oil-consuming nations are in a position to shape both the global economic and political balance, provided they coordinate and, to some extent, pool their efforts. America should play a major role in this effort. Rather than wait passively for the next blow to fall, the major consuming nations -- the Group of Seven, together with India, China and Brazil -- should establish a coordinating group to shift the long-term trends of supply and demand in their favor and to end the blackmail of the strong by the weak.
AP photo
Summer 2008
"Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.
Velo Steve
May 19, 2008
National Security Challenges and Competition: US Defense and Space R&D in a Strategic Context
Journal Article, Technology in Society, issue 3, volume 30
By Dr. Robert J. Hermann, Formern Senior Advisor, Preventive Defense Project
PDP Senior Advisor Robert J. Hermann examines the evolution of the role of science and technology as a strategic national security advantage.
Martha Stewart
Summer 2008
"Oil Shockwave" Sends Tremors through the Forum
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
Even a relatively minor disruption in the global supply of oil could have profound effects for the U.S. economy and national security, according to a distinguished group of former government officials, economists, and energy and security experts who took part in an innovative role-playing exercise in the John F. Kennedy Forum Monday night (April 29, 2008).
Image Credit: Martha Stewart
April 28, 2008
PDP Co-Director Carter Participates in Harvard Oil Shockwave Simulation
Press Release
PDP Co-Director Carter participates in a high-profile crisis simulation examining the economic and security implications of America’s dependency on oil.
AP Photo
February 29, 2008
"Oil for Nukes — Mostly a Bad Idea"
Op-Ed, Christian Science Monitor
By Matthew Fuhrmann, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom
"...In 1975, France signed an agreement with Iraq authorizing the export of a research reactor and highly enriched uranium. According to French officials at the time, their aim was to obtain a permanent and secure oil supply from a country that provided 20 percent of its oil.
It worked. But it also had tremendous consequences for international and regional security."
Department of Defense
January 2008
Defense Management Challenges in the Post-Bush Era
Book Chapter
By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project (on leave), Harvard & Stanford Universities
Dr. Ashton Carter discusses the resource management challenges facing American defense leaders in the coming decade.
AP Photo
October-December 2007
"United States Hegemony and the New Economics of Defense"
Journal Article, Security Studies, issue 4, volume 16
By Jonathan D. Caverley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008
This paper proposes an alternate theory of technological hegemony that explains the U.S. policy of massive R&D investment in both the late Cold War and the current era of American preponderance. Modern weapons' complexity and economies of scale tend to produce monopolies, and the value chain for the production of these monopolistic goods is dominated by the systems integration techniques of prime contracting firms. In turn these prime contractors remain largely enthralled by U.S. market power. The United States gains international influence by controlling the distribution of these weapons. Put simply, technology with international political effects is likely to have international political origins.
July 15, 2007
Old Oil Fears Don't Match 2007 Reality: U.S. Vulnerability, Economic Threat are Largely Overstated
Op-Ed, San Francisco Chronicle
By Philip Auerswald, Associate, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program
2007
Global Perspectives on Oil and Security
Book
This book was born out of a seminar organized by the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies in January 2006, where members of the Department of Political Science at Dalhousie University presented papers on topics related to oil and security.
