January 22, 2014
Op-Ed, Washington Post
By David Ignatius, Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project
A funny thing happened on the way to the decline of the United States and the rise of China, Brazil and other emerging markets: Many prominent analysts began wondering if the pessimistic predictions about America were wrong — and whether it was the emerging markets that were heading for trouble.
November 19, 2013
Op-Ed, The South China Morning Post
By Scott Moore, Former Giorgio Ruffolo Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Sustainability Science Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, 2012–2014
"Although the country has successfully imported model environmental policies, it has yet to develop the complex institutional infrastructure needed to make them work, especially an independent judiciary, a capable bureaucracy, and effective co-operation between central and local governments."
Journal Article, International Interactions, issue 2, volume 39
By Jonathan Markowitz, Former Associate, Geopolitics of Energy Project, 2013–2014; Former Research Fellow, Geopolitics of Energy Project, 2012–2013, Geopolitics of Energy Project
The central purpose of this article is to establish the relationship between power projection, technology, and economic power. How economically powerful does a state need to be before it can afford the capital intensive technologies, foreign bases, and military and logistical forces associated with global power projection? The specific research question we focus on in this article is: What determines how far states send their military forces? We argue that as the costs associated with projecting power decrease or as the wealth necessary to project power increases, states will project power more frequently and at greater distances. We use a system level time series analysis from 1870–1936 and a dispute level analysis on all militarized international disputes from 1870–2000 to test these propositions. This article is the first to demonstrate empirically that the distance and frequency of power projection is a function of the cost of projecting power. We close with a discussion of contemporary states building power projection capabilities and how future research might build from our research to explain this behavior.
November 6, 2013
Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal
Nearly seven years have passed since we coined the word Chimerica in these pages to characterize the symbiotic relationship between China and America. Few today would dispute that op-ed's original point: that the unbalanced economic relationship between China and America posed a threat to global financial stability. Without the flow of Chinese savings into U.S. dollars, as a result of Beijing's large-scale currency intervention and reserve accumulation, American interest rates would surely have been higher and the housing bubble would have inflated less.
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 38
By Charles Glaser, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1982-1985; Editorial Board Member, Quarterly Journal: International Security
U.S. scholars and policymakers commonly worry that a lack of "energy security" hurts U.S. national security, yet few have analyzed the links between states' energy requirements and the probability of military conflict. An investigation of these links identifies threats to U.S. national security flowing from other countries' consumption of oil, rather than just U.S. consumption. Furthermore, while many of the security threats associated with Persian Gulf oil have decreased, new oil-driven dangers are emerging in Northeast Asia.
October 23, 2013
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School
Belfer Center Director Graham Allison discussed his book Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World at a Cambridge Forum in Harvard Square on October 21. The public event also was broadcast by National Public Radio stations across the country.
October 4, 2013
Op-Ed, The Straits Times
By Karen Agustiawan, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
After a gap of 19 years, Indonesia is again hosting the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec). As a giant in the world economy - encompassing approximately 55 per cent of global gross domestic product and about 44 per cent of world trade - Apec has the weight to be an influential global player.
September 12, 2013
Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal
By Robert B. Zoellick, Non-resident Senior Fellow
Over the past five years, developing economies have been responsible for over two-thirds of global economic growth. Over the past decade, the share of developed-country exports bought by their developing partners has increased to almost 50% from 25%. In recent years China alone has consumed about half the world's cement, iron ore, steel, coal and lead, lifting commodity prices.
July 28, 2013
Op-Ed, The New York Times
By Richard N. Rosecrance, Adjunct Professor; International Security Program; Director, Project on U.S.-China Relations
"...[T]he joining of the two continents would increase trade and employment. It would facilitate Mr. Obama's goal of doubling American exports and increasing investment and consumption. Ms. Merkel would smile as German cars and medical equipment poured into American markets, and Washington would return the favor with microprocessors, biotechnical devices and liquid natural gas. If the deal is concluded next year as planned, economists estimate the creation at least one million jobs over 10 years, and a 0.5 percent increase in G.D.P., on both sides of the Atlantic. The new pact would draw together 259 of the Fortune 500 companies. Investment flows and tourism would bubble to new heights."
July 26, 2013
Op-Ed, The New York Times
By Ali Wyne, Former Research Assistant, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The U.S. is in relative decline, not absolute decline. Indeed, its demographic outlook, its progress on major trade initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and its breakthroughs in fields like natural gas and big data — among other factors — suggest that it may be poised for a renaissance.