November 6, 2012
Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal
By Leonardo Maugeri, Associate, Environment and Natural Resources Program/Geopolitics of Energy Project
"The price of oil continues to be set by fear, not by supply and demand," writes Leonard Maugeri. "World-wide oil production is growing quickly. By the end of the year, it will probably surpass 92 million barrels per day, with additional spare capacity of more than 3.5 million barrels. Thanks to the shale oil revolution, U.S. crude production could exceed 6.5 million barrels per day by the end of the year: around one million more barrels than the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted in January."
October 29, 2012
Op-Ed, The Diplomat
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"China, a great power in the making, and Russia, a fading but nonetheless aspiring power, have repeatedly positioned themselves on 'the wrong side of history' in regard to the Iranian nuclear program, events in Syria, and more. Great power status confers not just prestige and influence, but also a need to share responsibility for international security and the 'global good.' With their uncaring pursuit of narrow national interests, neither is demonstrating a predilection to do so."
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
South Korea faces a complex security environment that increasingly has important maritime components, a situation that produces many competing priorities from coastal defense against North Korea to regional concerns, and finally to global protection of sea lanes and contributing to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. Consequently, concerns for China are only one piece of the ROK Navy's strategy and force planning decisions.
October 17, 2012
By Elaine Kamarck, Lecturer in Public Policy
"...[T]he subtext of this second presidential debate was all Ohio, all the time. At every opportunity the two candidates came back to the three C's that matter in Ohio — cars, China and coal. If this seemed a little strange to everyone else in the country it made perfect sense in the dynamic of this campaign....By the time the second debate rolled around last night, though Obama still held an edge in the electoral college, the race had gotten so close that it looked like it was coming down to who could win Ohio."
As part of its Maritime Asia project, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) conducted a workshop focused on naval developments in Asia. The purpose of this workshop was to explore the interaction between China's ongoing naval modernization and the navy modernization programs that most of China's neighbors are pursuing.
Forthcoming February 2013
Journal Article, Applied Energy, volume 102
The key findings derived from this study improve the understanding of the effects of China's domestic investment on its energy consumption expansion and reflect the fact that China's rapid urbanization and industrialization processes are among the main reasons for the large amount of energy consumption in China. The authors provide some quantitative information for further determining the energy-saving potentials of China's economy during these processes.
May 2, 2012
Op-Ed, New York Times
By Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs; Faculty Chair, International Security Program
"...[W]ar between China and America is far from inevitable. Both countries have nuclear weapons and both governments understand that a war would be catastrophic. If future leaders are prudent, the rivalry may be managed and peace preserved. But if inexperienced, reckless or over-confident leaders come to power on either side, the danger of war will rise. Unfortunately, recent history warns that the likelihood both countries will always have wise leaders is not high."
Journal Article, Yale Journal of International Affairs, issue 1, volume VII
By Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
Two assumptions dominate current debates on US foreign policy toward Pakistan. First, Pakistan shares a robust "all-weather" friendship with China centered on core national interests. Second, Pakistan's ability to turn to China in times of need insulates it from US pressure and renders hardline US policies counterproductive. Both of these assumptions are mistaken.
"The Price of Wind Power in China During its Expansion: Technology Adoption, Learning-by-doing, Economies of Scale, and Manufacturing Localization"
Journal Article, Energy Economics, issue 3, volume 34
By Yueming Qiu and Laura Diaz Anadon, Assistant Professor of Public Policy; Associate Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; Co-PI, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group
Using the bidding prices of participants in China's national wind project concession programs from 2003 to 2007, this paper built up a learning curve model to estimate the joint learning from learning-by-doing and learning-by-searching, with a novel knowledge stock metric based on technology adoption in China through both domestic technology development and international technology transfer. The paper describes, for the first time, the evolution of the price of wind power in China, and provides estimates of how technology adoption, experience building wind farm projects, wind turbine manufacturing localization, and wind farm economies of scale have influenced the price of wind power.
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
“Debating the pros and cons of government policy, applying scientific methods to pressing national challenges and teaching the next generation...that’s ultimately what gets me out of bed in the morning” says Michael Beckley, a research fellow with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program. According to Beckley, who expects to receive his Ph.D. from Columbia University later this year, “It is clear to me that public policy, both domestic and foreign, has a tremendous effect on people’s lives and that individuals armed with information, can and should work to improve those policies.”