NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Winter 2012-2013
From the Director
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School
As in October 1962, this fall’s 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis unfolded against the backdrop of a national election. The electoral stakes were even higher this year with the presidency in play, not just midterm Congressional races. So it seemed appropriate for the Belfer Center to take the anniversary as a learning moment for politicians and policy-makers, not just for students and scholars.
Winter 2012-2013
"Cuban Missile Crisis Events Highlight Decision-Making"
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
During October 2012, the Belfer Center remembered the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 with a series of events that highlighted the threat and lessons that leaders can take from the most dangerous moment in human history.
AP Images
November 27, 2012
Understanding the IAEA's Mandate in Iran: Avoiding Misinterpretations
Report
By Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, David Albright and Orde Kittrie
Much attention has focused on Iran's advancing nuclear program, on the peace and security concerns which that program has raised, and on the international policy debate over how to respond to that program. Far less attention has been paid to the various legal-sounding arguments used by Iran and a few academics to call into question the mandate of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to investigate and make determinations about actual or suspected violations of Iran’s legal obligations.
IAEA
November 5, 2012
"Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Future Prospects"
Paper
By Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
International diplomacy efforts dealing with Iran’s nuclear program continue to fill the daily news headlines. The efforts of P5+1, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have tried, in various formats, to encourage and enforce Iran to comply with the provisions of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is not used as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons. The challenge of discovering what has taken place as well as currently with Iran’s nuclear ambitions is difficult not only because of Tehran’s obstructionism, but also because the same nuclear technologies, particularly uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
November 2, 2012
"Lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis for Today’s Crises"
News
By James F. Smith, Communications Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
In Harvard Professor Graham Allison’s view, “the significant unknowns” during the Cuban Missile Crisis nearly catapulted John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev into nuclear war. For former diplomat Nicholas Burns, the principal take-away from the crisis was the importance of giving an adversary a way out of a confrontation short of complete surrender. Allison and Burns were panelists on Oct. 14 at a forum at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum in Boston to consider the modern lessons flowing from the missile crisis. The event kicked off an intensive series of seminars and workshops for scholars from Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs to mark the 50th anniversary of the missile crisis. Panel moderator Juliette Kayyem, Kennedy School lecturer in public policy, reminded the audience that the missile crisis is often framed through the myth of the tough American president staring down the Russian foe and making him blink. Kayyem said that version fails to capture the nuanced secret diplomacy and the American concessions that made a deal possible.
November 2012
"Antiproliferation: Tackling Proliferation by Engaging the Private Sector"
Discussion Paper
By Ian J. Stewart, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
Illicit trade from the international marketplace plays a direct role in sustaining the nuclear and missile programs of several countries, including Iran, in defiance of UN sanctions. This paper sets out what measures the private sector should take in order to manage the legal, financial and reputational risks associated with involvement in proliferation-related trade, and makes recommendations to national authorities for how for how to help the private sector identify and prevent potential proliferation.
October 2012
"North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program: Motivations, Strategy, and Doctrine"
Book Chapter
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
Despite continuing efforts to convince North Korea to relinquish its nuclear capability, it appears increasingly unlikely that it will ever do so. Pyongyang might be willing to curtail or freeze certain parts of the program but the likelihood of North Korean denuclearization is quickly fading. With Pyongyang likely to retain some level of nuclear-weapons capability, analysis turns to an assessment of how these weapons might be integrated into its defense posture. Using deterrence theory as the analytical framework, this chapter examines possible avenues for North Korea's nuclear weapons strategy and doctrine.
October 2012
Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon
Book
By Toshi Yoshihara and John R. Holmes
Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances.
October 30, 2012
Inside the Situation Room: A National Security Crisis Simulation
News
By Sharon Wilke, Associate Director of Communications
Harvard Kennedy School students convened at the Kennedy School on October 27 to simulate a meeting of the National Security Council to resolve a modern-day crisis. The simulation, developed entirely by a team of HKS students, coordinated by HKS student Leon Ratz, was co-sponsored by the Belfer Center and the Kennedy School's Center for Public Leadership. The event was timed to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
October 22, 2012
Winners of Cuban Missile Crisis Lessons Contest Announced
Press Release
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Foreign Policy Magazine have announced the winners and runners-up of the “Lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis Contest,” held to mark the 50th anniversary of the crisis that narrowly averted nuclear war in October 1962.
