NUCLEAR TERRORISM
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October 9, 2009
"Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Evolving Forms of the Nuclear Genie"
Presentation
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen traces nuclear terrorism in the 21st century beginning with theory and practice, analyzing the implications of 9/11 and weighs in on the reconstruction of the global nuclear order.
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October 2009
"Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace"
Discussion Paper
By Matthew Fuhrmann, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom and Sarah Kreps, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008
When do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructure in nonnuclear weapons states? Despite the importance of this question, relatively few scholarly articles have attempted to identify the factors that lead a state to attack another state's nuclear facilities. This paper conducts the first large-n analysis on when states use force as a way to control proliferation.
This paper challenges existing arguments that states are deterred from attacking nuclear programs by the prospect of a military retaliation from the proliferating state or concerns about international condemnation. Instead, it finds that states are more likely to attack nuclear programs when they believe that the proliferating state might use nuclear weapons or engage in other offensive behavior. States are willing to accept substantial costs in attacking if they believe that a particular country's acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a significant threat to their security.
September 22, 2009
"Options for Limiting the Security Risks from a Negotiated Nuclear Settlement with Iran"
Presentation
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project
Matthew Bunn considers the premises, facts, and risks underlying negotiation with Iran over their nuclear program. He describes a range of options for limiting the risks of a negotiated settlement with Iran. Bunn suggests that insisting on zero centrifuges is likely to lead to no agreement. It is time to begin thinking about what the lowest risk, non-zero options may look like.
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August 7, 2009
"The Armageddon Test"
Discussion Paper
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
How much nuclear material has leaked, and is it in the hands of terrorists, in storage somewhere, or still in circulation? No one knows for sure, but the task of cleaning up the nuclear black market amounts to an Armageddon test for global intelligence. The standard for success is unforgiving: all nuclear material must be recovered before it finds its way into an improvised nuclear device.
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July 24, 2009
White House Homeland Security Council Urges Nuclear Attack Response Planning
Op-Ed, Emergency Management
By Arnold Bogis, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Ready or Not?, a yearly analysis of preparedness for health emergencies that's released by the nonprofit Trust for America's Health, found that "surge capacity remains the largest threat to the nation's ability to respond to a major catastrophe." Local, and specifically, regional abilities to care for the wounded will be vital just after a nuclear terrorist attack. Unfortunately many communities haven't gotten the point.
June 2009
Funding for U.S. Efforts to Improve Controls Over Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise Overseas: A 2009 Update
Report
By Andrew Newman, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom and Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project
Andrew Newman and Matthew Bunn assess the Obama administration's fiscal year 2010 budget request for programs to improve controls over nuclear weapons, materials, and expertise worldwide. Funding for U.S. Efforts to Improve Controls Over Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise Overseas: A 2009 Update concludes that the request is a "steady as you go" budget and recommends that Congress and the administration work together to establish a $500 million contingency fund that could be used flexibly on a range of nuclear security programs.
Summer 2009
"Center Scholars Offer Advice on Future of U.S.-Russia Relations"
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
By Beth Maclin, Communications Assistant
Belfer Center Director Graham Allison, with members of the Bipartisan Commission on U.S. Policy towards Russia, met in March with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and high-level officials in the Obama administration to discuss the future of U.S.-Russia relations.
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May 13, 2009
Planning for Nuclear Terrorism as Well as the Flu
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
By Arnold Bogis, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Every day brings news about the spread of swine flu in the U.S. and instability in Pakistan. It is too early to tell how either story will end, but we are prepared to deal with the potential consequences of only one of these situations.
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April 30, 2009
Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: A Global Intelligence Imperative
Report
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"The biggest obstacle to multilateral intelligence cooperation is leadership and finding the courage to work together. Group think and risk aversion must be overcome in the name of urgency."
April 24, 2009
"Belfer Center Director Graham Allison Selected to Receive National Academy of Sciences' Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War"
Press Release
By Beth Maclin, Communications Assistant
Graham Allison, director of the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, will receive the 2009 National Academy of Sciences' Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War on Sunday, April 26, 2009, in Washington, D.C. He is being honored for illuminating alternative ways of thinking about political decision making with special relevance to crises, including nuclear crises, as demonstrated in his groundbreaking Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis and subsequent works.
