CONFLICT AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION
AP Photo
November 2009
"Afghans on the Taliban"
Policy Memo
By and large, the people of Afghanistan are driven by a desire for administration and order - not by money or supreme ideology. Despite its oppressive tactics, the Taliban regime has managed to seize power and sustain it by filling a vacuum of social instability. Wardak province, which lies just two hours outside of Kabul, is a major Taliban stronghold in central Afghanistan today. The Taliban's seizure of power in Wardak serves as a microcosm of the social and political dynamics at play in the entire country. If left unchecked, more and more parts of Afghanistan risk failing into the hands of these non-governmental, rebel powers.
Forthcoming January 2010
Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars
Book
By Monica Duffy Toft, Associate Professor of Public Policy
"Using comprehensive data on internal conflicts, Toft challenges the flawed assumptions driving international peacemaking diplomacy and peacekeeping operations, which sadly may be prolonging civil wars instead of ending them. This provocative and politically incorrect book ought to stimulate a long-needed debate over the efficacy of current approaches to ending conflicts." - Andrew Natsios, Georgetown University
AP Photo
October 30, 2009
The Future of Pakistan: A Conversation with Simon Shercliff and Hassan Abbas
Media Feature
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Simon Shercliff
Hassan Abbas, a former Pakistani government official and senior advisor to Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, recently spoke to Simon Shercliff, First Secretary Foreign Security and Policy for the British Embassy, about the future of Pakistan. Their conversation touched on a range of topics, including the militants' recent attacks on the Pakistani military, Pakistan's relationship with India, Pakistan-UK relations, and U.S. aid to Pakistan.
AP Photo
October 28, 2009
"Afghans Need to Find a New Model of Democracy"
Op-Ed, Financial Times
By Paul Fishstein, Fellow, Belfer Center & Carr Center
"While democracy is notoriously difficult to define, it is generally considered to be something positive. Until the debacle of the August presidential elections, 'fledgling democracy' was touted as one of the west's great achievements in Afghanistan."
AP Photo
October 21, 2009
"High Cost, Low Odds"
Op-Ed, Nation
By Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs; Faculty Chair, International Security Program
"...America's odds of winning this war are slim. The Karzai government is corrupt, incompetent and resistant to reform. The Taliban have sanctuaries in Pakistan and can hide among the local populace, making it possible for them simply to outlast us. Pakistan has backed the Afghan Taliban in the past and is not a reliable partner now. Our European allies are war-weary and looking for the exits. The more troops we send and the more we interfere in Afghan affairs, the more we look like foreign occupiers and the more resistance we will face. There is therefore little reason to expect a US victory."
Fall 2009
"Long Time Going: Religion and the Duration of Crusading"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 34
By Michael Horowitz, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2005-2007
Scholars have argued for centuries about the relative importance of religion in determining behavior. Do actors with genuine religious beliefs, both leaders and foot soldiers, actually fight wars and commit atrocities in the name of religion and religious institutions? Or is religion a proxy for materialist variables such as land grabs or wealth creation?
Fall 2009
"What’s in a Line? Is Partition a Solution to Civil War?"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 34
By Nicholas Sambanis and Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl
Does territorial partition of countries in civil wars help to end these wars, reducing the risk of recurrence? Researchers have proposed territorial partition with or without formal recognition of sovereignty as a solution to civil wars and a way to create self-enforcing peace. Quantitative studies of the effect of partition on the risk of renewed civil war, however, suffer several main shortcomings, including conflicting results in the extant literature that result mainly from data coding differences, selective use of case histories, and methodological problems.
AP Photo
October 12, 2009
"AIPAC, J Street, or JDate?"
Op-Ed, The Jerusalem Post
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"Those Jewish Americans, who share a deep concern for Israel's trials and travails, have the right, even the duty, to express their criticism within the Jewish community, the public at large, pretty much anywhere — except before the administration and Congress. There, we have to present one voice — not "pro" every Israeli policy, but united, unswerving support for Israel and a strong US-Israel relationship."
AP Photo
October 11, 2009
"Deciphering the Attack on Pakistan's Army Headquarters"
Op-Ed, Foreign Policy
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"This was neither the first attack on an army structure in the country nor the most deadly — but it is unprecedented given the extent of the breach of the GHQ security, the confusion that it created in its initial stage (raising concerns about the safety of army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani), and its timing vis-à-vis the planned launch of a ground military operation in South Waziristan. It could be a transformational event for the army — cementing its resolve against local militants, bridging internal divisions and forcing a review of its intelligence estimates. However, jumping to conclusions without a thorough investigation and reacting rashly based on preconceived notions would be highly counterproductive. Additionally, though Pakistan's nuclear installations are not in the immediate vicinity of GHQ, the nature of the attack raises questions about how security agencies would react if a future attack targets any of the nuclear weapons facilities."
AP Photo
October 9, 2009
"Whatever He Decides, Afghanistan Will Hurt Obama"
Op-Ed, The Providence Journal
By Aaron Rapport, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"...Obama is unlikely to decrease his commitment to Afghanistan, even if assessments of the situation there grow increasingly dire. Instead he will probably opt to push the day of reckoning down the road. This is not just cynical politics on Obama's part. Powerful, success-oriented individuals tend to believe they can find solutions to even the most intractable problems if they are given enough time. As a result, they underestimate the long-term risks and costs of their actions."
