INTRASTATE CONFLICT
June 16, 2013
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
By Charles G. Cogan, Associate, International Security Program
"The United States and its Allies outsmarted the Russians on Libya — by enticing it into supporting a UN Security Council vote against Qadhafi. So far, Russia has outsmarted the West on Syria, by blocking a move in the Security Council against Bashar al-Asad."
June 11, 2013
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, Middle East Initiative
"Pro- and anti-Syria/Hezbollah groups in Lebanon have been quarreling and shooting each other for decades. That dynamic now will expand, as the Syrian and Lebanese arenas merge into a single battleground, fuelled by the active determination to fight for their survival by both Hezbollah and by Lebanese Salafists and others who see Hezbollah’s bold new militarism as spearheading Shiite-Iranian-Syrian domination of Lebanon. It remains unclear if Lebanon’s heightened tensions and shootouts will remain confined to traditional arenas in the north, northeast and south, or expand into Beirut and other regions."
May 2013
Report Chapter
By Nussaibah Younis, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"The greatest political challenge facing Iraq today is its transition from a power-sharing to a majoritarian form of government without a concomitant depoliticization of ethno-sectarian identities."
May 22, 2013
Op-Ed, American Interest
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"A failure to respond to Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons would not only encourage him in the belief that he can perhaps get away with an even bigger use next time; it would also undermine U.S. strategic credibility well beyond the Syria case. This begs the obvious question: At what point does the 'red line' really become one?"
May 22, 2013
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, Middle East Initiative
The battle for Qusayr is only the haphazard spark within the larger Syrian war that could ignite this fire. The real causes of this combustible condition of the Arab region remain the dysfunction of modern Arab states and central governments, the ascendancy of police states and military regimes, the repercussions of the century-long Zionism-Arabism conflict, and the continuing status of the Middle East as a proxy battleground for regional and foreign powers.
May 18, 2013
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, Middle East Initiative
"Tensions between the Arab state and its citizens will expand in the years ahead, as the fundamental contradictions of Arab state-building, national identity, regional relations, the Arabism-Zionism confrontation, and international alliances all clash visibly. Jordan and Egypt provide the clearest examples because of their peace treaties with Israel, but they are not unique. Most other Arab states suffer similar contradictions and stresses, especially Levantine and Gulf states that must satisfy American-Israeli demands that contradict the sentiments of many of those Arab states’ own citizens."
May 14, 2013
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, Middle East Initiative
The uprisings that erupted across the region as of December 2010 have been the single most important sign of a region-wide malaise that was gnawing at the core of Arab countries for decades, signaled in its earlier stages in the 1980s-90s by the rise of mass Islamist movements that reflected widespread citizen discontent and challenged autocratic governments. The evolving regional order is now entering its most dynamic stage of change, with every component element transforming into something new.
May 13, 2013
News
On Monday, May 6, the Middle East Initiative hosted a panel discussion addressing the most pressing concerns in the deepening, unabated Syrian crisis that has plagued the country since March of 2011. Moderated by Hilary Rantisi, Director of the Middle East Initiative, the panelists addressed the political, economic and humanitarian consequences of the violence in Syria, as well as the responses and responsibilities of the global community.
AP Photo
May 9, 2013
Op-Ed, Los Angeles Times
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"...[E]ven the limited use of chemical weapons violates a fundamental international norm and an American failure to respond would create another North Korea–like precedent that would be a source of deep encouragement for the Assads of the world: WMD buys even a heinous regime immunity from international retaliation. Iran is no doubt watching in the wings, deriving its own conclusions regarding what the U.S. defines as unacceptable behavior."
May 8, 2013
Op-Ed, Washington Post
By David Ignatius, Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project
"It shouldn’t have been this hard, but Secretary of State John Kerry has finally gotten Russia to back the peace plan on Syria that it endorsed in principle last June. This isn’t a breakthrough, but at least it’s a beginning.
What the United States and Russia seem to have realized is that a negotiated transition of power in Syria is better than a fight to the death, which would destabilize the region. That’s a wise judgment, but it’s not clear that it’s shared by either the Alawite clique backing President Bashar al-Assad or the Sunni jihadists who are the backbone of the opposition."
