INTRASTATE CONFLICT
AP photo
Summer 2008
"Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.
AP Photo
June 25, 2008
"Who Will Have the Courage to Save Zimbabwe?"
Op-Ed, The Boston Globe
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
AFTER Idi Amin terrorized and killed his own Ugandans throughout the 1970s, President Julius Nyerere of neighboring Tanzania finally sent his army across the border to end the mayhem and restore stability. Who will now do the same for beleaguered Zimbabwe?
June 9, 2008
"Attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan Highlight Instability"
Media Feature
Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed for The News Hour with Jim Lehrer on June 9, 2008 regarding instability along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
AP Photo
June 2, 2008
"Why Islam Lies at the Heart of Iraq's Civil War"
Op-Ed, Christian Science Monitor
By Monica Duffy Toft, Associate Professor of Public Policy
"...[N]ot until 2007 did the Pentagon acknowledge that Iraqi sectarian violence had crossed a threshold to become a civil war.
But policymakers still haven't come to terms with the implications of that fact. If they did, they'd see that a wisely executed withdrawal of US-led forces could well be the surest path to peace. That's because withdrawal is likely to transform the fighting in Iraq into a defensive struggle for power in a nation-state, as opposed to an offensive battle rooted in religion."
May 6, 2008
"Turkmenistan under Niyazov and Berdymukhammedov"
In the News
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
A monument of Turkmenistan’s former autocratic ruler, Saparmurat Niyazov, will be removed from the center of the country’s capital, the New York Times reported on Monday, May 5, 2008. The removal was ordered by Turkmenistan’s current president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. What seems to be a symbolic move away from the repression that has plagued Turkmenistan is more likely the removal of one autocratic legacy to make room for another.
May 6, 2008
"Assessing Repression in Syria"
In the News
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
Even as evidence mounts pointing to a partnership between Syria and North Korea in the construction of a Syrian nuclear reactor, Syria and North Korea continue to deny the allegations, leading the U.S. to condemn both countries’ secrecy.
May 6, 2008
"U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal"
Media Feature
By Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Belfer Center's Project on India and the Subcontinent
Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.
AP Photo
May 6, 2008
"Burma: Poster Child for Entrenched Repression"
In the News
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
In late April, President Bush declared that the upcoming elections in Burma would not be “free, fair, or credible” and that the U.S. would impose further sanctions on the state-owned business sector, in order to increase pressure on the ruling junta.
AP Photo
May 6, 2008
"Winning the African Prize for Repression: Zimbabwe"
In the News
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
After much delay, the “official” presidential election results in Zimbabwe were finally announced last week (May 2, 2008). While opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, won the majority vote (47.9% to Robert Mugabe’s 43.2%), because the 50% minimum that is needed to win outright was not reached, a run-off will take place. This second round leaves Zimbabweans and the international community certain that Robert Mugabe will continue his use of intimidation, force, and violence to secure his re-election.
Spring 2008
"Partitioning to Peace: Sovereignty, Demography, and Ethnic Civil Wars"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 4, volume 32
Partitioning states along ethnic lines is a debatable solution to solving ethnic civil wars. Advocates argue that partition offers the best chance for lasting peace, while opponents claim that it takes a huge toll on the populations involved and that its effectiveness has yet to be proven. The evidence suggests that only partitions that completely separate the warring groups succeed in creating peaceful states. Policymakers should thus consider partition as an option only where populations are already separated or where population transfers can be accomplished safely. Partitioning Kosovo into distinct ethnic districts could lead to lasting peace, whereas partitioning Iraq would most likely increase human suffering and violence.
