ROGUE/REPRESSIVE STATES
AP Photo
November 2009
"Beyond Zero Enrichment: Suggestions for an Iranian Nuclear Deal"
Policy Brief
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project
"Some form of negotiated agreement, if it can be achieved, is the “least bad” option for U.S. interests—but is likely to have to include some continuing enrichment in Iran. There are real security risks in agreeing to permit some ongoing enrichment in Iran, but if appropriately managed, these security risks are less than those created by a military strike or allowing Iran to continue unfettered enrichment with no agreement."
November 16, 2009
"The Year the World Really Changed"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek
By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"...1989 was less of a watershed year than 1979. The reverberations of the fall of the Berlin Wall turned out to be much smaller than we had expected at the time. In essence, what happened was that we belatedly saw through the gigantic fraud of Soviet superpower. But the real trends of our time—the rise of China, the radicalization of Islam, and the rise and fall of market fundamentalism—had already been launched a decade earlier."
November, 2009
Securing the Peace: The Battle over Ethnicity and Energy in Modern Iraq
Working Paper
By Justin Dargin, Research Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
This article examines the legal and political impediments to the Kurdish Regional Government's (KRG) exploration and production contracts, which the central government in Baghdad has refused to recognize. The newly established Iraqi national constitution significantly opened as many petroleum-control questions as it resolved. Negotiated in 2005, the constitution not only separated branches of government, but established Federalism as its lodestar. When faced with unresolved issues over regional and national control over petroleum resources, however, International Oil Companies (IOCs) function in an ambiguous legal environment that fails to clearly distinguish between federal and regional powers.
November, 2009
What Accounts for the Success of Islamist Parties in the Arab World
Working Paper
By Michael Robbins, Research Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
Islamist organizations are generally considered to be the strongest and most credible opposition to incumbent regimes throughout the Arab world. Fear of Islamic takeovers has led regimes and other outside powers to justify not holding free elections, citing examples that include the Algerian election of 1991, the Iranian Revolution, the AKP victory in Turkey and the perceived popularity of Islamist opposition groups throughout much of the Arab world (Brumberg 2002). Yet, other analysts have questioned the actual strength of Islamist movements within the Arab world, noting that although Islamists may be the main challenger, few have actually been successful in taking power (Roy 1994).
November, 2009
What Accounts for the Success of Islamist Parties in the Arab World
Policy Brief
By Michael Robbins, Research Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
Islamist organizations are generally considered to be the strongest and most credible opposition to incumbent regimes throughout the Arab world. Fear of Islamic takeovers has led regimes and outside powers to justify the suppression of free elections by citing the Algerian election of 1991, the Iranian Revolution, the AKP victory in Turkey, and the perceived popularity of Islamist opposition groups throughout much of the Arab world (Brumberg 2002). Yet, other analysts have questioned the actual strength of Islamist movements, noting that although Islamists may be the main challengers, few have actually been successful in taking power (Roy 1994).
AP Photo
June 19, 2009
"Don't Play Nuclear Chicken with a Desperate Pariah"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, Foreign Policy
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"This game of escalation will go on and on until North Korea gets what it desires most from Washington: a reliable security assurance. Of course, no one likes to yield to dictators. But ultimately, playing chicken with a desperate and nuclear-armed North Korea is too risky to endeavor. The more isolated the North Koreans become, the more likely they will be to use the nuclear card in threatening two hostages: South Korea and Japan. Everyone loses that game"
AP Photo
June 13, 2009
"The False Unity in Zimbabwe"
Op-Ed, Boston Globe
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of Zimbabwe, who visited President Obama yesterday, needs all the American support he can get. Although the head of government of an impoverished and beleaguered nation battered by a decade of severe mismanagement and corruption, Tsvangirai is hardly in charge. President Robert Mugabe is still calling too many of the crucial governing shots.
AP Photo
June 11, 2009
Observations on the Recent United Nations Security Council Resolution on North Korea
News
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
On June 12, 2009, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1874 in response to recent provocative actions by North Korea, including a second nuclear test. Chinese and Russian support for a new U.N. Security Council resolution that imposes additional sanctions is potentially significant. However, whether China in particular will support tough implementation of the resolution and will take a harder line in its bilateral relations with North Korea remains to be seen, and will ultimately determine the success or failure of efforts to reverse North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
AP Photo
May 28, 2009
"North Korea won't fire nuke ... but could sell one to Osama"
Op-Ed, The Sun
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
"The challenge for President Obama, Prime Minister Brown, members of the UN Security Council and the international community is to convince Kim Jong-il that he faces disastrous consequences."
Photo by Martha Stewart
Summer 2009
"Q&A with Rory Stewart"
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
By Rory Stewart, Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights, Carr Center
Rory Stewart is the Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors. A former officer in the British Army and deputy governate coordinator with the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, Stewart spent two years walking 6,000 miles across Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Nepal - a journey he describes in his critically acclaimed book The Places in Between.
